ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Healthcare price soars

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded inflation at 0.08% MoM (1.52% YoY) in Jul-21 although the government enacted the partial lockdown policy or the stricter Restrictions on Public Activities (PPKM Darurat) in Jul-21.

STRATEGY REPORT - Buckle up

President Jokowi announced the extension of Emergency Mobility Restrictions (EMR or PPKM Darurat) till July 25 due to resurging Covid infections.

Fund Performance

ECONOMIC UPDATE - What to expect - No magic bullet

Indonesia has become the new epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic, surpassing India to become the country with the world’s highest cases of new infections.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Lower imports ahead

Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD1.32 bn in Jun-21. The surplus is lower than our estimate and consensus at USD1.34 bn and USD2.23 bn, respectively.

STRATEGY REPORT - Positive outlook despite aggressive Covid-19 impact

The Indonesia stock market in June saw a slight rise of 0.6% to 5,985 in the JCI index as more severe coronavirus outbreaks and debate on Fed tapering vied with optimism on new vaccinations and economic recovery. 

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - First deflation in 2021

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded a deflation for the first time in 2021 at 0.16% MoM in Jun-21. However, on yearly basis, the figure still showed inflation at 1.33%.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Coal plays a part

After the Eid month, it is expected and natural for the trade performance slows down. Just like last month, commodity price surge played significant role as well as the low-base effect due to the impact of the pandemic last year on the trade performance.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Ticks up

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded the inflation at 0.32% MoM (1.68% YoY) in May-21 where all categories in the CPI basket increased. The inflation was also below target for a 10^th straight month due to the still-weak consumption. 

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - One full year of surplus

The surge of import happened due to the growing domestic manufacture, supported by the increase on import of foods related to Eid celebration in May-21.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP - Fathoming the contraction

Since 2Q20, has experienced consecutive contractions until 1Q21. We have to revise down our economic growth estimate from 4.8% to 3.8% YoY in 2021 as the recovery still needs more time to take effect.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Externa ltrade review - Unexpected jump

Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD1.57 bn in Mar-21. We see the economic recovery may lead to the smaller trade surplus ahead as the import grows due to the higher demand of imported input for domestic production.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Unanchored expectation

The low inflation in Mar-21 may send mixed signal where we can perceive that the demand side was still weak amid the pandemic. On the other hand, the low inflation is preferable as people expect that inflation will go high in 2021 as the economy recovers because the low inflation provides space...

STRATEGY REPORT - Still need to take time to better reflect the recovery

Most plantation companies under our coverage have experienced a stronger quarter in 4Q20 and saw FY20 earnings beat as CPO prices sharply jumped in 4Q20.