ECONOMIC UPDATE – External trade review – Trade surplus beat expectations on lower imports

Indonesia extended the positive run of international trade since May 2020 or 34 straight months of trade surplus.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Food prices remain elevated

February is harvest season, the highest growth and the biggest contributor of February’s inflation rate was the food, beverage, and tobacco basket that contributed 0.13% MoM to the inflation and rose by 0.48% MoM.

Fund Performance

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP Review Indonesia’s balance of payments surplus continues

Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded a balance of payments (BoP) surplus at USD4 bn for FY22. However, the BoP surplus decreased significantly from USD 13.5 bn in FY21.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - The 33rd consecutive month of trade surplus

On a yearly basis, it showed better performance rising by 302% YoY from USD0.96 bn in the same month of the previous year. The January’s trade balance marks the 33rd consecutive month surplus that Indonesia has achieved since May 2020.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation cools to lowest level since August

The inflation rate is lower than the previous month where Christmas and Holiday season drove the December 2022 inflation rate to 5.51% YoY.

Market Outlook 2023: Technology Sector

Indonesia digital economy value is expected to grow almost 5x from 2021-2030F from the value of USD70 mn in 2021 to USD330 mn in 2030F. 

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - Macroeconomic buttress

Current account balance posted a higher surplus at USD4.38 bn in 3Q22 (1.28% of GDP). It was higher than consensus at USD3.25 bn so it brings positive sentiment towards market.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Monetary review - Hawkish pivot

For a third consecutive months, Bank Indonesia (BI) delivered a 50 bps rate hike on BI-7DRRR to 5.25% in Nov-22 or in line with consensus.

Market Outlook 2023: Banking Sector

Banks under our coverage should perform really well in 2022F with earnings grew 33% YoY.

Market Outlook 2023: Telco Sector

In YtD 2022, competition has been stabilizing for telecommunication (telco) industry and we foresee the trajectory to remain positive for at least a few more quarters. 

Market Outlook 2023: Consumer Sector

The consumer staples sector has been under pressure in 2022 owing to a surge in global commodity prices. 

Market Outlook 2023: Property Sector

Residential sales in the primary market have shown recovery following deep contraction in 2020 amidst pandemics. 

Market Outlook 2023: Healthcare Sector

Government allocates Rp169.8 tn Healthcare budget in 2023. We see healthcare budget declined compared to 2022, this due to the absence of Covid-19 budget.