Currency movement is also favorable as Rupiah move within 13,800 – 14,300 range.
Initially, we expect that airlines baggage fee will push transportation inflation higher in January.
Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to release 4Q18 balance of payment data (BoP), including the current account deficit (CAD) data, on Feb 8.
There are some concerns of government’s opportunity to raise subsidized fuel price after 2019 election.
With national elections around the corner, Jokowi seems to be backtracking on his reform agenda with a string of populist measures. Jokowi plans to keep electricity tariffs and fuel prices unchanged over the next two years by hiking energy subsidies in draft state budget 2019.
President Trump has promised to raise the tariff rate on USD 200 bn in Chinese imports to 25% from 10%.
Lower oil price started to take oil and gas import down as December figure denoted negative growth.
Although have been aggressively adjust the time deposit pricing, the effect on bottom line is manageable as time deposit does not dominate the big banks’ book. Certain smaller banks, such as BBTN would also have better protection again NIM pressure as sizeable portion of their lending is...