Statistics Indonesia reported a trade surplus at USD1.02 bn in Dec-21. The surplus was lower than our estimate and consensus at USD2.75 bn and USD3.51 bn, respectively.
Inflation is becoming a hot topic worldwide but in Indonesia, it is not the case as it remains cold. In Dec-21, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded the highest inflation on monthly and yearly basis at 0.57% MoM (1.87% YoY).
The JCI index, having lagged peers in 2020 with a 5.1% decline, played catch-up rising by 8.8% to highest monthly level of 6,505 on 21-Jan-21.
After posting a significant decline in 2020 at -36% YoY, earnings for banks under our coverage continues to recover as we expect a 44% YoY in 2021F.
Residential sales in the primary market experienced a deep contraction in 2020. The declining property sales affected all types of residence, most significantly large houses.
In recent years, Indonesia’s biodiesel production has increased due to national biodiesel program, financed by the CPO fund to support biodiesel producers.
Despite bearing the brunt of China’s energy crisis caused by inflating coal and oil prices, nickel prices have surprisingly remained resilient increasing by 19% Ytd to USD19,739/ton and LME nickel inventory continued declining by 42% to 142 k wmt.
Indonesian government sets Rp255.3 tn of healthcare budget allocation in 2022 (-21.7% YoY), which is 9.4% of the state budget. This consist of Rp139.4 tn regular healthcare budget (+11.3% YoY), and Rp115.9 tn PEN (covid-19) budget (-42.4% YoY).
According to google mobility index as of the 3rd week of October, Indonesia mobility data on retail and recreational area was around 3% above the base line.
Heading to 2022F, we believe in order to achieve sustainable recovery in consumer buying power will require higher vaccinations rate to curb any potential mobility restrictions in the future.
In 3Q21, current account balance posted the biggest surplus in 12 years at USD4.47 bn (1.49% of GDP) reversing the deficit at USD1.97 bn in 1Q21 (-0.45% of GDP). The thick current account surplus sends positive sentiment that Indonesia’s external resilience remains solid heading to the...