We expect economic growth to slightly decelerate from 5.03% in FY22 to 5.0% YoY in FY23 following the global economic slowdown and normalization of commodity prices.
The highest contributor to April’s inflation rate was the transportation basket (+0.84% MoM) contributing 0.11% MoM to the inflation rate.
On an annual basis, the data showed weaker performance, shrinking by -36% MoM from USD4.53 bn in the same month of the previous year. Indonesia has successfully maintained the positive trend of international trade since May 2020 or 35 straight months of trade surplus.
The biggest contributor of March’s inflation rate was the food, beverage, and tobacco basket that contributed 0.09% MoM to the inflation and grew by 0.35% MoM.
Indonesia digital economy value is expected to grow almost 5x from 2021-2030F from the value of USD70 mn in 2021 to USD330 mn in 2030F.
Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded a balance of payments (BoP) surplus at USD4 bn for FY22. However, the BoP surplus decreased significantly from USD 13.5 bn in FY21.
On a yearly basis, it showed better performance rising by 302% YoY from USD0.96 bn in the same month of the previous year. The January’s trade balance marks the 33rd consecutive month surplus that Indonesia has achieved since May 2020.
Current account balance posted a higher surplus at USD4.38 bn in 3Q22 (1.28% of GDP). It was higher than consensus at USD3.25 bn so it brings positive sentiment towards market.
For a third consecutive months, Bank Indonesia (BI) delivered a 50 bps rate hike on BI-7DRRR to 5.25% in Nov-22 or in line with consensus.