ECONOMIC UPDATE - Externaltrade review - Surplus closes the year

Statistics Indonesia recorded trade surplus at USD2.1 bn in Dec-20. The surplus is lower than our and consensus estimates at USD2.89 bn and USD2.58 bn, respectively.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation revs up

Inflation at 0.45% MoM (1.68% YoY) remarks the final inflation in 2020. The inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month from Sep-20.

Fund Performance

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Monetary Review - Rest after the fifth rate cut

Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in Dec-20 or in line with our and  consensus expectations.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Highest export in 2020

Statistics Indonesia recorded trade surplus at USD2.61 bn in Nov-20. The surplus is higher than our and consensus estimates at USD1.61 bn and USD2.60 bn, respectively.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - First surplus since 2011

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported Indonesia’s balance of payments (BoP) surplus of USD2.05 bn in 3Q20 (vs. USD0.04 bn deficit in 3Q19).

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - The end of disinflation

After we experienced the end of three months monthly deflation, now we can say the disinflation had to end as well. Disinflation itself is when price inflation slows down temporarily.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Monetary review- Favorable rate cut

Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.75% in Nov-20. In contrast, our expectation and consensus saw that BI would hold the rate unchanged previously.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP - Escaping the worst

As anticipated before, Indonesia entered the first recession since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis as the economic contraction was recorded in 2Q20 and 3Q20.

STRATEGY REPORT - Market mood on the mend

The JCI dropped by 7.0% in September to 4,870  level ,  in-line with global markets that were in a sea of red led by the slump in US stocks and profit taking activities.

Market Outlook 2021: Equity Strategy

The global markets look optimistic on the shape of the economic recovery going into 2021 supported by further easing of movement restrictions, boost in fiscal spending, low interest rates and vaccine developments. 

Market Outlook 2021: Consumer Sector

We like consumer staples next year due to potential tailwind from the key raw materials prices which could uphold consumer staple companies’ margin. 

Market Outlook 2021: Telco Sector

Telecommunication (telecom) sector is still in the structural transition phase from legacy services (voice and SMS) to data services. The stage of the transition, however, is different from one another.

Market Outlook 2021: Property Sector

The coronavirus pandemic has a huge impact on property markets around the world. With the massive unemployment, wage cuts, business failures, and job uncertainty, many people are likely to be cautious about making big investments such as home purchase which leads to falling house prices.