No one anticipates the significant jump on the export as the level-based mobility restriction (PPKM) remains. The jump on trade surplus will likely support the exchange rate and may help to narrow the current account deficit in 3Q21.
In Aug-21, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded inflation at 0.03% MoM (1.59% YoY) or showed a slower growth due to the ongoing level-based lockdown policy (PPKM).
A child having tantrums might be aggressive, screaming or running away. Tantrums come in all shapes and sizes, including capital outflow from emerging market (EM).
As expected previously on our previous trade review, we estimated the imports would be lower during the level-based mobility restriction (PPKM) and the Covid-19 cases surge. We still see the trade performance will be harmed in Aug-21, bringing the lower imports ahead.
Indonesia is celebrating the first economic growth since pandemic kicked in from Mar-20. As the people mobility increased in 2Q21, some sectors such as food and beverage, transportation and warehousing and accommodation contributed the biggest growth.
Indonesia has become the new epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic, surpassing India to become the country with the world’s highest cases of new infections.
Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD1.32 bn in Jun-21. The surplus is lower than our estimate and consensus at USD1.34 bn and USD2.23 bn, respectively.
The Indonesia stock market in June saw a slight rise of 0.6% to 5,985 in the JCI index as more severe coronavirus outbreaks and debate on Fed tapering vied with optimism on new vaccinations and economic recovery.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded a deflation for the first time in 2021 at 0.16% MoM in Jun-21. However, on yearly basis, the figure still showed inflation at 1.33%.
After the Eid month, it is expected and natural for the trade performance slows down. Just like last month, commodity price surge played significant role as well as the low-base effect due to the impact of the pandemic last year on the trade performance.