ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP - Fathoming the contraction

Since 2Q20, has experienced consecutive contractions until 1Q21. We have to revise down our economic growth estimate from 4.8% to 3.8% YoY in 2021 as the recovery still needs more time to take effect.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Externa ltrade review - Unexpected jump

Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD1.57 bn in Mar-21. We see the economic recovery may lead to the smaller trade surplus ahead as the import grows due to the higher demand of imported input for domestic production.

Fund Performance

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Unanchored expectation

The low inflation in Mar-21 may send mixed signal where we can perceive that the demand side was still weak amid the pandemic. On the other hand, the low inflation is preferable as people expect that inflation will go high in 2021 as the economy recovers because the low inflation provides space...

STRATEGY REPORT - Still need to take time to better reflect the recovery

Most plantation companies under our coverage have experienced a stronger quarter in 4Q20 and saw FY20 earnings beat as CPO prices sharply jumped in 4Q20.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Sign of recovery

Sustaining the previous trade surplus at USD1.96 bn, Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD2 bn in Feb-21. The surplus is lower than our and consensus estimates at USD2.12 bn and USD2.29 bn, respectively.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - Solid amid pandemic

Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded current account balance at USD0.79 bn (0.29% of GDP) continuing surplus at USD1.01 bn in 3Q20 (0.38% of GDP).

STRATEGY REPORT - Expecting further upside in March

In February, the JCI index has risen 380 points (6.5%) from 5,862 on January 29 to 6,242. This is in line with our expectation that JCI performance would be better in February after declining by 2% in January.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Remaining cool

The low inflation is preferable as people expect that inflation will go high in 2021 as the economy recovers because the low inflation provides space for the future inflation to go higher than current level. 

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Monetary review - Harnessing momentum

In Feb-21, Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps from 3.75% to 3.50% or in line with our expectation and consensus. Market has also expected the rate cut since Governor Perry indicated his preference of the lower rate at some...

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Started the year with a surplus

After resulting surplus of USD21,6 tn in overall 2020, the trade balance started 2021 with surplus at USD1.96 bn in Jan-21. The global economic recovery may lead to the smaller trade surplus ahead as the import may grow due to the higher demand of imported input for domestic production.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP - Heave a sigh of relief

Market heaves a sigh of relief that the daunting contractions over each quarter in 2020 have stabilized with a better trend.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Start low, go slow

In medical terminology, lowest dose is given to the patient as the dose may increase slowly as needed for the sake of comfort goal. In other terms: start low, go slow.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Monetary review - Steady rate

Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in Jan-21 or in line with our and consensus expectations. Thus, the deposit and lending facility were unchanged at 3.0% and 4.5% respectively.