After the Eid month, it is expected and natural for the trade performance slows down. Just like last month, commodity price surge played significant role as well as the low-base effect due to the impact of the pandemic last year on the trade performance.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded the inflation at 0.32% MoM (1.68% YoY) in May-21 where all categories in the CPI basket increased. The inflation was also below target for a 10th straight month due to the still-weak consumption.
The surge of import happened due to the growing domestic manufacture, supported by the increase on import of foods related to Eid celebration in May-21.
Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD1.57 bn in Mar-21. We see the economic recovery may lead to the smaller trade surplus ahead as the import grows due to the higher demand of imported input for domestic production.
The low inflation in Mar-21 may send mixed signal where we can perceive that the demand side was still weak amid the pandemic. On the other hand, the low inflation is preferable as people expect that inflation will go high in 2021 as the economy recovers because the low inflation provides space...
Since 2Q20, has experienced consecutive contractions until 1Q21. We have to revise down our economic growth estimate from 4.8% to 3.8% YoY in 2021 as the recovery still needs more time to take effect.
Sustaining the previous trade surplus at USD1.96 bn, Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD2 bn in Feb-21. The surplus is lower than our and consensus estimates at USD2.12 bn and USD2.29 bn, respectively.
In February, the JCI index has risen 380 points (6.5%) from 5,862 on January 29 to 6,242. This is in line with our expectation that JCI performance would be better in February after declining by 2% in January.
In Feb-21, Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps from 3.75% to 3.50% or in line with our expectation and consensus. Market has also expected the rate cut since Governor Perry indicated his preference of the lower rate at some...
After resulting surplus of USD21,6 tn in overall 2020, the trade balance started 2021 with surplus at USD1.96 bn in Jan-21. The global economic recovery may lead to the smaller trade surplus ahead as the import may grow due to the higher demand of imported input for domestic production.