STRATEGY REPORT - Stay vigilant on risk of correction

July 03, 2020

The JCI dropped by 22.1% to 4,905 in 1H20. We looked at various stocks in JCI that have contributed the most to the decline and have seen selling pressure.

Securities

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Lowest inflation since 2000, below BI’s target

July 03, 2020

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded low inflation in Jun-20. The biggest contributor of inflation came from food, beverage and tobacco basket. On inflation components, chicken contributed the most as it brought 0.14% to total inflation.

Securities

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Monetary review - Third rate cut, one to go

June 19, 2020

BI believes that the economic growth will go up eventually. Thus, in 2021, BI predicts the recovery phase is near and the growth in 2021 will be around 5-6%.

Securities

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Trade nosedive

June 16, 2020

Looking at the smaller trade deficit compared to 2018 and 2019 and the relaxation of PSBB, the trade performance will be getting better when other countries as our key trade peers recover from Covid-19.

Securities

STRATEGY REPORT - Markets and economy take divergent paths

June 12, 2020

We expect JCI to encounter another selling pressure in 3Q20, as the real extent of economic and corporate earnings impacts of Covid-19 become manifest with the release of 2Q20 earnings and GDP figure starting in July 2020.

Securities

STRATEGY REPORT - Re-opening the economy in a new normal

May 29, 2020

In a bid to revive the stuttering economy, Indonesian officials have planned to economic reopening in stages starting from June with some health protocols remaining in place.

Securities

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Invisible Ramadan effect

June 03, 2020

Inflation in May-20 showed an anomaly compared to prior Ramadan months where the households spending and the inflation itself used to be higher.

Securities

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - The pandemic drives capital flight

May 20, 2020

As Covid-19 pandemic hits on every sector, it brought significant impact to financial account it swung to a deficit of USD2.93 bn due to the capital flight amid pandemic compared to surplus of USD9.86 bn in 1Q19.

Securities

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Externaltrade review - Depend on (peers) recovery

May 18, 2020

Trade performance in 2018 and 2019 were way worse than Jan-Apr 2020 performance. This could be a signal of 2020 weaker global demand of Indonesia’s export, supported by the lower inflation of OECD member states with lower trend ahead.

Securities

ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP - Prologue of low growth

May 08, 2020

Continuing the global economic downturn in 2019, Covid-19 hit us all where Indonesia’s economic growth plunged sharply in 1Q20.

Securities

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - Not what it used to be

May 05, 2020

Low inflation in Apr-20 is unusual since it historically used to be higher compared to March.

Securities

STRATEGY REPORT - Volatility may rise; stay cautious

April 23, 2020

Our economist now expects a U-recovery for the Indonesia economy as our baseline scenario instead of V-recovery. With cases of Covid-19 are on the rise we believe it would peak in June and be brought under control by third quarter of this year.

Securities