The first nine months of 2023 have been one of a roller coaster ride first on the downside and then on the upside (Exhibit 23). Indonesia equity markets began 2023 on a weak note.
Banking industries have continued to deliver compelling profitability, with earnings growing by 14% annually since the pre-pandemic period.
In YTD 2023, competition has been stabilizing for telecommunication (telco) industry and we foresee the trajectory to remain positive for at least a few more quarters.
Expect election year to aid consumption growth. Despite economic headwinds and pandemic of the past few year, but we held more optimistic outlook as we enter 2024 with inflation and unemployment rate figure are expected to continue decrease.
London Metal Exchange (LME) Nickel prices have steadily declined by 39.6% Ytd to USD18,450/ton, whilst China NpI prices have also declined 14.9% Ytd to USD13,830/ton.
Indonesia digital economy value is expected to grow almost 5x from 2021-2030F from the value of USD70 mn in 2021 to USD330 mn in 2030F. Supported by its young demographic and rising smartphone penetration, Indonesia is the largest digital economy market in South East Asia with one of the fastest...
Demand for residential property remained soft in 1H23 where sales mainly were seen for the low to middle segment which offers affordable price units. Home purchase still mostly dominated by end users especially for landed housing.
The government has been relying on massive infrastructure to achieve ambitious GDP growth target since President Jokowi took office in 2014. The country needs better transport links such as railways, airports, toll roads as well as energy supplies, and such projects promise long-term economic...
In terms of consumption, the Health and Social Activity component of GDP continues to attract attention, growing 8.3% YoY in 2Q23, coupled with a lower healthcare inflation rate.
The additional forex reserves are essential for maintaining the stability of the Rupiah. We expect the average exchange rate to be Rp14,980/USD, while economic growth is projected to reach 5.0% YoY this year.
We expect investment to grow by 4.80% YoY in 2H23, compared to our forecast for 1H22 at 3.60% YoY. However, it is crucial for the government to maintain political stability, as investors tend to wait and see amidst political escalation.