The negative import growth of China in December has made Indonesia export to experience -4.6% YoY growth and made the trade balance remained high at USD 1.1 bn.
Initially, we expect that airlines baggage fee will push transportation inflation higher in January.
Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to release 4Q18 balance of payment data (BoP), including the current account deficit (CAD) data, on Feb 8.
There are some concerns of government’s opportunity to raise subsidized fuel price after 2019 election.
President Trump has promised to raise the tariff rate on USD 200 bn in Chinese imports to 25% from 10%.
With national elections around the corner, Jokowi seems to be backtracking on his reform agenda with a string of populist measures. Jokowi plans to keep electricity tariffs and fuel prices unchanged over the next two years by hiking energy subsidies in draft state budget 2019.
Lower oil price started to take oil and gas import down as December figure denoted negative growth.
Although have been aggressively adjust the time deposit pricing, the effect on bottom line is manageable as time deposit does not dominate the big banks’ book. Certain smaller banks, such as BBTN would also have better protection again NIM pressure as sizeable portion of their lending is...
We believe solid backlog order until October 2019 for mining equipment as miners need to increase production and replace ageing equipment will support our view.
We expect thermal coal prices next year could average around 6% less than in 2018 amid the prospect of slackening Chinese and Indian import demand and higher supply from Indonesia.