ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Trade surplus widens on lower imports

In contrast, imports are poised to outpace exports, driven by the sustained strength of the domestic economy. As a result, our forecast points to a further narrowing of the trade surplus, with the possibility of the balance turning into a deficit.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation - The disinflation rate hit its slowest pace since October-22

Volatile food prices demonstrated a deflation rate of -0.51% MoM, marking a decline from July's 0.17% MoM increase. Meanwhile, administered prices experienced a deceleration to -0.02% MoM, in contrast to a rate of 0.44% MoM in the previous month.

Fund Performance

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - Indonesia’s BoP turns a deficit

The triple intervention refers to the BI interventions in the spot, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forwards (DNDF), and government securities (SBN) markets. Rupiah was reported at Rp15,325/USD as of 21 August-23, higher than the macroeconomic assumption on APBN 2023 at Rp14,800/USD.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - The trade surplus narrows more than expected

Imports are projected to outperform exports, propelled by the enduring strength of the domestic economy. As a consequence, our forecast indicates a further decrease in the trade surplus and the possibility of the balance shifting into a deficit.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP - Better-than-expected 2Q23 GDP

Considering the global economic slowdown and the normalization of commodity prices, we expect a slight deceleration in economic growth from 5.31% YoY in FY22 to 5.0% YoY in FY23.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation cools to 3.52%, its slowest pace since April-22

The main contributors to the inflation were food, beverages, and tobacco basket, contributing 0.10% MoM and growing by 0.39% MoM, mostly due to Eid-al-Adha. On the other hand, transportation basket experienced deflation of -0.10% MoM.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - Inflation cools to 3.08%, hitting the slowest pace since March-22

The education group exhibited the highest growth with a 0.66% MoM increase, contributing 0.04% MoM to the inflation rate, which aligns with the start of the new school year.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Lower imports widen trade surplus

The additional forex reserves are essential for maintaining the stability of the Rupiah. We expect the average exchange rate to be Rp14,980/USD, while economic growth is projected to reach 5.0% YoY this year.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - 2H23 - Macroeconomic outlook ahead of general elections

We expect investment to grow by 4.80% YoY in 2H23, compared to our forecast for 1H22 at 3.60% YoY. However, it is crucial for the government to maintain political stability, as investors tend to wait and see amidst political escalation.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - External trade review - Thin trade surplus on moderating commodity prices

Indonesia has maintained a positive trend in international trade since May 2020, resulting in 37 consecutive months of trade surplus.

ECONOMIC UPDATE – Inflation Inflation rate cools after Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr

The core inflation rate decelerated from 0.25% MoM in April to 0.06% MoM in May, lower than our estimates of 0.18% MoM.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - BoP review - BoP surplus increases despite small trade surplus

The government should anticipate a higher interest payment on external debt due to the Fed Fund Rate (FFR) hike. The Fed raised its rate to 5.00%–5.25% in May, the highest since August 2007.

ECONOMIC UPDATE - GDP - 1Q23 GDP is better-than-expected

We expect economic growth to slightly decelerate from 5.03% in FY22 to 5.0% YoY in FY23 following the global economic slowdown and normalization of commodity prices.