Current account balance posted a USD0.22 bn surplus in 1Q22 (0.07% of GDP) or lower than consensus at USD0.92 bn of surplus.
The export benefited from the elevated commodity prices while the import slowed down following China’s weaker economy last month.
Nevertheless, the inflation is beyond the Ramadan effect. Domestic manufacturers claimed that higher costs for inputs including raw materials and fuel were intensified.
The thick trade surplus provides liquidity and stronger external resilience for Indonesia. We may witness the trade surplus persists in 2Q22 if several countries reimposing mobility restrictions due to the Covid-19 cases, just like China.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded 0.66% MoM (2.64% YoY) of inflation in Mar-22. The inflation rate was higher than our estimate at 2.61% YoY and Bloomberg consensus at 2.53% YoY.
In overall 2021, current account balance posted the first surplus after 11 years at USD3.33 bn (0.45% of GDP) reversing the deficit at USD4.43 bn in 2020 (-0.42% of GDP).
Statistics Indonesia reported a thin trade surplus at USD932.9 mn in Jan-22. The surplus was higher than our estimate and consensus at USD35 mn and USD199 mn, respectively.
After laying low in all over 2021, the inflation settled back within Bank Indonesia (BI) target at 3±1% YoY. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded a 0.56% MoM (2.18% YoY) of inflation in Jan-22.
Statistics Indonesia reported a trade surplus at USD1.02 bn in Dec-21. The surplus was lower than our estimate and consensus at USD2.75 bn and USD3.51 bn, respectively.