In a bid to revive the stuttering economy, Indonesian officials have planned to economic reopening in stages starting from June with some health protocols remaining in place.
As Covid-19 pandemic hits on every sector, it brought significant impact to financial account it swung to a deficit of USD2.93 bn due to the capital flight amid pandemic compared to surplus of USD9.86 bn in 1Q19.
Trade performance in 2018 and 2019 were way worse than Jan-Apr 2020 performance. This could be a signal of 2020 weaker global demand of Indonesia’s export, supported by the lower inflation of OECD member states with lower trend ahead.
Talking about basic monetary policy, it emphasizes more on demand side as it may affect the liquidity in society. Covid-19 does not only bring impact on demand side, but supply side as well.
Our economist now expects a U-recovery for the Indonesia economy as our baseline scenario instead of V-recovery. With cases of Covid-19 are on the rise we believe it would peak in June and be brought under control by third quarter of this year.
Eventually, Indonesia has launched the foremost stimulus package on target compared to the previous stimulus packages.
Covid-19 is not only affected the supply side but also the demand side. In that case, a global economic contraction could become inevitable.
Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to cut its BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI-7DRRR).
According to Indonesia Statistic Office (BPS), the country had always recorded trade deficit in every January within the last three years.