Telecommunication (telecom) sector has been in talks for industry consolidation for a while. The last major M&A was happening back in 2013-2014 between EXCL and Axis and it has yet resulted in the ideal level of competitive landscape.
Heading to 2022F, we believe in order to achieve sustainable recovery in consumer buying power will require higher vaccinations rate to curb any potential mobility restrictions in the future.
According to google mobility index as of the 3rd week of October, Indonesia mobility data on retail and recreational area was around 3% above the base line.
Indonesian government sets Rp255.3 tn of healthcare budget allocation in 2022 (-21.7% YoY), which is 9.4% of the state budget. This consist of Rp139.4 tn regular healthcare budget (+11.3% YoY), and Rp115.9 tn PEN (covid-19) budget (-42.4% YoY).
Despite entering what is usually weak coal season demand, Newcastle coal price have shown little signs of losing its steam jumping 181% YtD to USD226/ton (301% YoY).
Despite bearing the brunt of China’s energy crisis caused by inflating coal and oil prices, nickel prices have surprisingly remained resilient increasing by 19% Ytd to USD19,739/ton and LME nickel inventory continued declining by 42% to 142 k wmt.
Residential sales in the primary market experienced a deep contraction in 2020. The declining property sales affected all types of residence, most significantly large houses.
In recent years, Indonesia’s biodiesel production has increased due to national biodiesel program, financed by the CPO fund to support biodiesel producers.
SOE contractors under our coverage reported weaker-than-expected net profit for 2Q21 and 1H21.
After posting a significant decline in 2020 at -36% YoY, earnings for banks under our coverage continues to recover as we expect a 44% YoY in 2021F.
The JCI index, having lagged peers in 2020 with a 5.1% decline, played catch-up rising by 8.8% to highest monthly level of 6,505 on 21-Jan-21.
The face of normalcy has changed in unprecedented ways under pandemic. The number of lives taken now is almost 5 mn and the number of infections is already above 246 mn globally.
In 3Q21, current account balance posted the biggest surplus in 12 years at USD4.47 bn (1.49% of GDP) reversing the deficit at USD1.97 bn in 1Q21 (-0.45% of GDP). The thick current account surplus sends positive sentiment that Indonesia’s external resilience remains solid heading to the economic recovery.
Statistics Indonesia reported an all-time high trade surplus at USD5.74 bn in Oct-21. We expect the high commodity prices condition will likely continue until the YE 2021 as Indonesia benefit from the energy crunch that is happening in developed countries.
After rocketing with 7.07% YoY of economic growth in 2Q21, Indonesia had to face the delay of joy due to the 2nd wave of Covid-19 in 3Q21. Moving forward, we are optimistic that the economic recovery will show in 4Q21.
In Oct-21, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded an inflation at 0.12% MoM (1.66% YoY) reversing the deflation from last month. The inflation will bring no threat in near future as it is also below Bank Indonesia (BI) target for a 15th straight month.
Statistics Indonesia reported a high trade surplus at USD4.37 bn in Sep-21. The surplus was higher than our estimate and consensus at USD3.96 bn and USD3.87 bn, respectively.
In Sep-21, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded the second deflation this year at 0.04% MoM but still recorded 1.60% YoY of inflation in Sep-21 due to the still-weak purchasing power. The price level was lower than our estimate and Bloomberg consensus of 1.67% YoY and 1.66% YoY, consecutively.
Statistics Indonesia reported a significant trade surplus at USD4.74 bn in Aug-21. The jump on trade surplus will likely support the exchange rate and may help to narrow the current account deficit in 3Q21.
In Aug-21, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded inflation at 0.03% MoM (1.59% YoY) or showed a slower growth due to the ongoing level-based lockdown policy (PPKM).
A child having tantrums might be aggressive, screaming or running away. Tantrums come in all shapes and sizes, including capital outflow from emerging market (EM).
As expected previously on our previous trade review, we estimated the imports would be lower during the level-based mobility restriction (PPKM) and the Covid-19 cases surge. We still see the trade performance will be harmed in Aug-21, bringing the lower imports ahead.
Indonesia is celebrating the first economic growth since pandemic kicked in from Mar-20. As the people mobility increased in 2Q21, some sectors such as food and beverage, transportation and warehousing and accommodation contributed the biggest growth.