The low inflation in Mar-21 may send mixed signal where we can perceive that the demand side was still weak amid the pandemic. On the other hand, the low inflation is preferable as people expect that inflation will go high in 2021 as the economy recovers because the low inflation provides space for the future inflation to go higher than current level.
Most plantation companies under our coverage have experienced a stronger quarter in 4Q20 and saw FY20 earnings beat as CPO prices sharply jumped in 4Q20.
Sustaining the previous trade surplus at USD1.96 bn, Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD2 bn in Feb-21. The surplus is lower than our and consensus estimates at USD2.12 bn and USD2.29 bn, respectively.
In February, the JCI index has risen 380 points (6.5%) from 5,862 on January 29 to 6,242. This is in line with our expectation that JCI performance would be better in February after declining by 2% in January.
The low inflation is preferable as people expect that inflation will go high in 2021 as the economy recovers because the low inflation provides space for the future inflation to go higher than current level.
Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded current account balance at USD0.79 bn (0.29% of GDP) continuing surplus at USD1.01 bn in 3Q20 (0.38% of GDP).
In Feb-21, Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps from 3.75% to 3.50% or in line with our expectation and consensus. Market has also expected the rate cut since Governor Perry indicated his preference of the lower rate at some occasions lately.
After resulting surplus of USD21,6 tn in overall 2020, the trade balance started 2021 with surplus at USD1.96 bn in Jan-21. The global economic recovery may lead to the smaller trade surplus ahead as the import may grow due to the higher demand of imported input for domestic production.
Market heaves a sigh of relief that the daunting contractions over each quarter in 2020 have stabilized with a better trend.
In medical terminology, lowest dose is given to the patient as the dose may increase slowly as needed for the sake of comfort goal. In other terms: start low, go slow.
Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in Jan-21 or in line with our and consensus expectations. Thus, the deposit and lending facility were unchanged at 3.0% and 4.5% respectively.
Statistics Indonesia recorded trade surplus at USD2.1 bn in Dec-20. The surplus is lower than our and consensus estimates at USD2.89 bn and USD2.58 bn, respectively.
Inflation at 0.45% MoM (1.68% YoY) remarks the final inflation in 2020. The inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month from Sep-20.
Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in Dec-20 or in line with our and consensus expectations.
Statistics Indonesia recorded trade surplus at USD2.61 bn in Nov-20. The surplus is higher than our and consensus estimates at USD1.61 bn and USD2.60 bn, respectively.
After we experienced the end of three months monthly deflation, now we can say the disinflation had to end as well. Disinflation itself is when price inflation slows down temporarily.
Bank Indonesia (BI) reported Indonesia’s balance of payments (BoP) surplus of USD2.05 bn in 3Q20 (vs. USD0.04 bn deficit in 3Q19).
Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.75% in Nov-20. In contrast, our expectation and consensus saw that BI would hold the rate unchanged previously.
As anticipated before, Indonesia entered the first recession since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis as the economic contraction was recorded in 2Q20 and 3Q20.
The coronavirus pandemic has a huge impact on property markets around the world. With the massive unemployment, wage cuts, business failures, and job uncertainty, many people are likely to be cautious about making big investments such as home purchase which leads to falling house prices.
As B30 mandatory came to effect in Indonesia, we saw CPO price surpassed RM3,000/ton in the beginning of 2020. However, according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the usage of FAME declined by 13% in 1Q20 due to the pandemic.
Tanker market trading conditions have been robust since Sep-19 and continue to 2020. The special case developed in the spring when oil demand plummeted as economies worldwide were shut down to control the spread of Covid-19.
It seems Indonesian government will not take down their ambitious plan to continue expanding the toll road network. Based on our check, up until 2019, the total toll road in operation has reached 2,166 km.