High volatility became the main theme of 2018 macroeconomic environment. Government will all out to maintain inflation, especially for food sector, in order to secure its position in upcoming election.
With national elections around the corner, Jokowi seems to be backtracking on his reform agenda with a string of populist measures. Jokowi plans to keep electricity tariffs and fuel prices unchanged over the next two years by hiking energy subsidies in draft state budget 2019.
EU has been using palm oil primarily for biodiesel mix and demand from the region has been relatively flat as palm oil infamously recognized as environmentally unfriendly product.
The residential property market is relatively in at better state compared to other subsectors as the growth in house prices were more sustainable at aggregate 3.3% YoY in 2Q18 and according to BI prediction will maintain at 3.3% in 3Q18.
OPEC has faced some difficulties balancing the market due to unexpected supply disruptions within the OPEC, especially for Venezuela and Libya.
We expect thermal coal prices next year could average around 6% less than in 2018 amid the prospect of slackening Chinese and Indian import demand and higher supply from Indonesia.
New contracts could improve in 2H18 as the acceleration in infrastructure project will be faster in 2H due to the backend loading of infra-spending. Moreover, contractors under our coverage still book higher earnings growth in 2Q18 by 68% on average.
We believe solid backlog order until October 2019 for mining equipment as miners need to increase production and replace ageing equipment will support our view.
Although have been aggressively adjust the time deposit pricing, the effect on bottom line is manageable as time deposit does not dominate the big banks’ book. Certain smaller banks, such as BBTN would also have better protection again NIM pressure as sizeable portion of their lending is linked to floating benchmark rate.
The Bloomberg survey showed most economists expect only 25 bps FFR hike in 2019 to 2.50% - 2.75% (see exhibit 2).
Importance for Indonesia to boost export growth through manufacture products to lower CAD in future.
First semester every year normally always be the harvest season of major foods crops as the raining season came to an end in March – April.
Maintaining healthy CAD and stable Rupiah from global volatility will be important challenges for Indonesia to keep the growth momentum.
Financial account posted surplus at USD 4.0 bn, higher than 1Q18 surplus at USD 2.4 bn amidst pressure from global, especially FFR hike expectation and US trade war.
We predict lower agriculture output in the 1st semester may lead to more volatile food inflation in 4th quarter.
Anak bukan investasi tapi amanah. Investasi sama sekali berbeda dengan amanah. Bila ada orang tua berharap memetik hasil dari menyekolahkan anak hingga sukses tidaklah benar.
External segment led LWPI, as export products price grew 7.93% YoY (1.08% MoM) and import products price rose by 3.74% YoY (0.81% MoM) due to Rupiah depreciation.
Hari ini, tidak bisa tidak, merencanakan biaya sekolah atau pendidikan anak harus dilakukan sejak dini. Orang tua harus mulai berani investasi untuk mencicil biaya sekolah anak.
Indonesia needs to stimulate its manufacture sector to be more export driven. Higher commodities export this year got much help from higher commodities price, especially coal.
Investasi, untuk apa? Agar liburan kita di waktu-waktu mendatang bisa dibiayai dari hasil investasi yang kita pilih, yang kita lakukan.
Pepatah "lebih besar pasak dari pada tiang" menjadi bukti orang-orang yang gagal mengelola keuangan. Maka ke depan, mereka patut jadikan investasi sebagai gaya hidup.
Pertamina raised fuel price again for Ron 92 and higher type (Pertamax and higher) for the third time in 2018 due to higher global oil price.
Increasing Trump’s approval rating during trade war news (see exhibit 8) will push US administration to keep imposing tariff to China for reducing trade deficit with them.
Indonesia’s retail association (Aprindo) sees that retail sales grew 15%-20% YoY during the Lebaran season in this year.