It seems Indonesian government will not take down their ambitious plan to continue expanding the toll road network. Based on our check, up until 2019, the total toll road in operation has reached 2,166 km.
Nickel prices slumped to USD11,225/ton Ytd in March 2020 because of China’s pandemic situation and steel mill shutdowns in 1Q20 as China contributing around 52% of the world stainless steel production.
Indonesian government sets Rp169.7 tn of healthcare budget allocation in 2021 (-20.1% YoY), representing 6.2% of state budget in 2021 (.vs 5.23% of state budget in 2020). Government allocate lower budget, as some of the healthcare equipment that was already purchased in 2020 can still be used in 2021.
Indonesia is still in early stage of data adoption. With low data usage per subscriber, low smartphone penetration and relatively young population, we think data consumption still has long runways.
Telecommunication (telecom) sector is still in the structural transition phase from legacy services (voice and SMS) to data services. The stage of the transition, however, is different from one another.
Banking sector performance is largely derived from the overall economy, given that they have loan exposures on every sector. It is not surprising that banking industry has been hit severely by Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
The global markets look optimistic on the shape of the economic recovery going into 2021 supported by further easing of movement restrictions, boost in fiscal spending, low interest rates and vaccine developments.
We like consumer staples next year due to potential tailwind from the key raw materials prices which could uphold consumer staple companies’ margin.
Since its first occurrence in late 2019, Covid-19 has wrecked the world. The number of lives taken now exceeds 1 mn and the number of infections is already above 33 mn globally, of which 60% are in developing countries. The condition sustains the uncertainty that 2019 left to 2020.
Omnibus Law on Job Creation is a now-passed law pushing reforms on numerous regulations to attract investment in order to create more jobs.
Trade surplus inched up from USD2.37 bn in Aug-20 to USD2.44 bn in Sep-20. The surplus is higher than our and consensus estimates at USD1.83 bn and USD2.08 bn, respectively.
Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark interest rate at 4.0% or unchanged from its previous level since Jul-20. The unchanged rate is in linewith our and consensus expectations.
The JCI dropped by 7.0% in September to 4,870 level , in-line with global markets that were in a sea of red led by the slump in US stocks and profit taking activities.
Trade surplus narrowed from USD3.26 bn in Jul-20 to USD2.37 bn in Aug-20. The surplus is lower than our estimation at USD2.94 bn but higher than consensus estimates at USD2.17 bn.
At the end of Aug-20, the House of Representatives (DPR) has prepared a draft of the Revision of Law number 23 of 1999 concerning Bank Indonesia (BI).
Jakarta will reinstate wider large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) effective 14 September following a surge in Covid-19 cases.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded deflation at 0.05% MoM although in yearly basis the inflation still occured at 1.32% YoY in Aug-20.
Lower inflation, bigger trade surplus and narrowing current account deficit (CAD) provide BI room to have a rate cut but we believe maintaining the rate unchanged is wise until the demand side is able to respond it better.
Jul-20 trade surplus was recorded as the second highest surplus at USD3.26 bn from the highest surplus at USD3.57 bn in Aug-11.
Dip in Indonesia economy has just been registered in 2Q20 at its sharpest pace since 1999 where in 1Q99 it grew by -6.13% YoY right after Asian Financial Crisis and political turmoil in 1998.
The low era of inflation is associated with current unusual situation where households tend to save more in order to avoid uncertainty in the near future due to the pandemic.
Bank Indonesia (BI) today delivered its fourth rate cut on benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 4.0%, which is the lowest in two years andaligned with our and consensus expectations.
Better than our and consensus estimates, trade performance in Jun-20 displayed big improvement where exports showed up with the first expansion in last 4 months.
The JCI dropped by 22.1% to 4,905 in 1H20. We looked at various stocks in JCI that have contributed the most to the decline and have seen selling pressure.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded low inflation in Jun-20. The biggest contributor of inflation came from food, beverage and tobacco basket. On inflation components, chicken contributed the most as it brought 0.14% to total inflation.