Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded inflation at 0.08% MoM (1.52% YoY) in Jul-21 although the government enacted the partial lockdown policy or the stricter Restrictions on Public Activities (PPKM Darurat) in Jul-21.
President Jokowi announced the extension of Emergency Mobility Restrictions (EMR or PPKM Darurat) till July 25 due to resurging Covid infections.
Indonesia has become the new epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic, surpassing India to become the country with the world’s highest cases of new infections. Cases and deaths have skyrocketed in the past month as the highly contagious delta variant occurs.
Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD1.32 bn in Jun-21. The surplus is lower than our estimate and consensus at USD1.34 bn and USD2.23 bn, respectively.
The Indonesia stock market in June saw a slight rise of 0.6% to 5,985 in the JCI index as more severe coronavirus outbreaks and debate on Fed tapering vied with optimism on new vaccinations and economic recovery.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded a deflation for the first time in 2021 at 0.16% MoM in Jun-21. However, on yearly basis, the figure still showed inflation at 1.33%.
After the Eid month, it is expected and natural for the trade performance slows down. Just like last month, commodity price surge played significant role as well as the low-base effect due to the impact of the pandemic last year on the trade performance.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) recorded the inflation at 0.32% MoM (1.68% YoY) in May-21 where all categories in the CPI basket increased. The inflation was also below target for a 10th straight month due to the still-weak consumption.
The surge of import happened due to the growing domestic manufacture, supported by the increase on import of foods related to Eid celebration in May-21.
Since 2Q20, has experienced consecutive contractions until 1Q21. We have to revise down our economic growth estimate from 4.8% to 3.8% YoY in 2021 as the recovery still needs more time to take effect.
Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD1.57 bn in Mar-21. We see the economic recovery may lead to the smaller trade surplus ahead as the import grows due to the higher demand of imported input for domestic production.
The low inflation in Mar-21 may send mixed signal where we can perceive that the demand side was still weak amid the pandemic. On the other hand, the low inflation is preferable as people expect that inflation will go high in 2021 as the economy recovers because the low inflation provides space for the future inflation to go higher than current level.
Most plantation companies under our coverage have experienced a stronger quarter in 4Q20 and saw FY20 earnings beat as CPO prices sharply jumped in 4Q20.
Sustaining the previous trade surplus at USD1.96 bn, Statistics Indonesia reported the trade surplus at USD2 bn in Feb-21. The surplus is lower than our and consensus estimates at USD2.12 bn and USD2.29 bn, respectively.
In February, the JCI index has risen 380 points (6.5%) from 5,862 on January 29 to 6,242. This is in line with our expectation that JCI performance would be better in February after declining by 2% in January.
The low inflation is preferable as people expect that inflation will go high in 2021 as the economy recovers because the low inflation provides space for the future inflation to go higher than current level.
Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded current account balance at USD0.79 bn (0.29% of GDP) continuing surplus at USD1.01 bn in 3Q20 (0.38% of GDP).
In Feb-21, Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps from 3.75% to 3.50% or in line with our expectation and consensus. Market has also expected the rate cut since Governor Perry indicated his preference of the lower rate at some occasions lately.
After resulting surplus of USD21,6 tn in overall 2020, the trade balance started 2021 with surplus at USD1.96 bn in Jan-21. The global economic recovery may lead to the smaller trade surplus ahead as the import may grow due to the higher demand of imported input for domestic production.
Market heaves a sigh of relief that the daunting contractions over each quarter in 2020 have stabilized with a better trend.
In medical terminology, lowest dose is given to the patient as the dose may increase slowly as needed for the sake of comfort goal. In other terms: start low, go slow.
Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in Jan-21 or in line with our and consensus expectations. Thus, the deposit and lending facility were unchanged at 3.0% and 4.5% respectively.
Statistics Indonesia recorded trade surplus at USD2.1 bn in Dec-20. The surplus is lower than our and consensus estimates at USD2.89 bn and USD2.58 bn, respectively.
Inflation at 0.45% MoM (1.68% YoY) remarks the final inflation in 2020. The inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month from Sep-20.