Market heaves a sigh of relief that the daunting contractions over each quarter in 2020 have stabilized with a better trend.
In medical terminology, lowest dose is given to the patient as the dose may increase slowly as needed for the sake of comfort goal. In other terms: start low, go slow.
Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in Jan-21 or in line with our and consensus expectations. Thus, the deposit and lending facility were unchanged at 3.0% and 4.5% respectively.
Statistics Indonesia recorded trade surplus at USD2.1 bn in Dec-20. The surplus is lower than our and consensus estimates at USD2.89 bn and USD2.58 bn, respectively.
Inflation at 0.45% MoM (1.68% YoY) remarks the final inflation in 2020. The inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month from Sep-20.
Bank Indonesia (BI) held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% in Dec-20 or in line with our and consensus expectations.
Statistics Indonesia recorded trade surplus at USD2.61 bn in Nov-20. The surplus is higher than our and consensus estimates at USD1.61 bn and USD2.60 bn, respectively.
After we experienced the end of three months monthly deflation, now we can say the disinflation had to end as well. Disinflation itself is when price inflation slows down temporarily.
Bank Indonesia (BI) reported Indonesia’s balance of payments (BoP) surplus of USD2.05 bn in 3Q20 (vs. USD0.04 bn deficit in 3Q19).
Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.75% in Nov-20. In contrast, our expectation and consensus saw that BI would hold the rate unchanged previously.
As anticipated before, Indonesia entered the first recession since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis as the economic contraction was recorded in 2Q20 and 3Q20.
The coronavirus pandemic has a huge impact on property markets around the world. With the massive unemployment, wage cuts, business failures, and job uncertainty, many people are likely to be cautious about making big investments such as home purchase which leads to falling house prices.
As B30 mandatory came to effect in Indonesia, we saw CPO price surpassed RM3,000/ton in the beginning of 2020. However, according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the usage of FAME declined by 13% in 1Q20 due to the pandemic.
Tanker market trading conditions have been robust since Sep-19 and continue to 2020. The special case developed in the spring when oil demand plummeted as economies worldwide were shut down to control the spread of Covid-19.
It seems Indonesian government will not take down their ambitious plan to continue expanding the toll road network. Based on our check, up until 2019, the total toll road in operation has reached 2,166 km.
Nickel prices slumped to USD11,225/ton Ytd in March 2020 because of China’s pandemic situation and steel mill shutdowns in 1Q20 as China contributing around 52% of the world stainless steel production.
Indonesian government sets Rp169.7 tn of healthcare budget allocation in 2021 (-20.1% YoY), representing 6.2% of state budget in 2021 (.vs 5.23% of state budget in 2020). Government allocate lower budget, as some of the healthcare equipment that was already purchased in 2020 can still be used in 2021.
Indonesia is still in early stage of data adoption. With low data usage per subscriber, low smartphone penetration and relatively young population, we think data consumption still has long runways.
Telecommunication (telecom) sector is still in the structural transition phase from legacy services (voice and SMS) to data services. The stage of the transition, however, is different from one another.
Banking sector performance is largely derived from the overall economy, given that they have loan exposures on every sector. It is not surprising that banking industry has been hit severely by Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
The global markets look optimistic on the shape of the economic recovery going into 2021 supported by further easing of movement restrictions, boost in fiscal spending, low interest rates and vaccine developments.
We like consumer staples next year due to potential tailwind from the key raw materials prices which could uphold consumer staple companies’ margin.
Since its first occurrence in late 2019, Covid-19 has wrecked the world. The number of lives taken now exceeds 1 mn and the number of infections is already above 33 mn globally, of which 60% are in developing countries. The condition sustains the uncertainty that 2019 left to 2020.
Omnibus Law on Job Creation is a now-passed law pushing reforms on numerous regulations to attract investment in order to create more jobs.